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COLOMBIA: Peso Remains Vulnerable To Fiscal Risks, Q3 GDP Due Next Week

COLOMBIA
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  • Despite a stronger opening today, the Colombian peso has pared gains in recent trade, leaving it broadly unchanged against the dollar on the day and over 4% weaker this week, amid ongoing concerns about the country’s fragile finances. After spiking as high as 4547 on Wednesday, USDCOP currently trades around 4480. BBVA says that demand for the COP tends to emerge above USDCOP4500, allowing the cross to settle below that level more recently.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Bonilla also said this week that a majority of the BanRep board is not likely to support an interest rate reduction of more than 50bp in December, despite much weaker-than-expected October inflation, easing concerns that the easing pace could be stepped up.
  • Looking ahead, focus will remain on ongoing discussions in Congress regarding the proposed decentralisation law. On the data front next week, Q3 GDP is expected to rise by 0.3% q/q and 2.3% y/y on Monday, while trade data for September will cross on Wednesday.
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  • Despite a stronger opening today, the Colombian peso has pared gains in recent trade, leaving it broadly unchanged against the dollar on the day and over 4% weaker this week, amid ongoing concerns about the country’s fragile finances. After spiking as high as 4547 on Wednesday, USDCOP currently trades around 4480. BBVA says that demand for the COP tends to emerge above USDCOP4500, allowing the cross to settle below that level more recently.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Bonilla also said this week that a majority of the BanRep board is not likely to support an interest rate reduction of more than 50bp in December, despite much weaker-than-expected October inflation, easing concerns that the easing pace could be stepped up.
  • Looking ahead, focus will remain on ongoing discussions in Congress regarding the proposed decentralisation law. On the data front next week, Q3 GDP is expected to rise by 0.3% q/q and 2.3% y/y on Monday, while trade data for September will cross on Wednesday.