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COLOMBIA: USDCOP Rises 0.5% Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • USDCOP has swung into the green, following the headlines that a possible Iran missile attack on Israel was imminent, with the pair now 0.5% higher on the day around 4230. The peso initially found some support from yesterday’s cautious BanRep interest rate cut, but analysts expect the central bank to step up the easing pace in the coming months, especially given upcoming board changes.
  • BBVA believe the continued reduction of carry should keep the COP under pressure, particularly when coupled with the lower price of crude. They remain long USDCOP, but have tightened their target to 4250.
  • On the data front, September manufacturing PMI figures are due at 1600BST, before focus turns to the BanRep minutes on Thursday for further clues on the Board’s thinking on the near-term interest rate outlook.
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  • USDCOP has swung into the green, following the headlines that a possible Iran missile attack on Israel was imminent, with the pair now 0.5% higher on the day around 4230. The peso initially found some support from yesterday’s cautious BanRep interest rate cut, but analysts expect the central bank to step up the easing pace in the coming months, especially given upcoming board changes.
  • BBVA believe the continued reduction of carry should keep the COP under pressure, particularly when coupled with the lower price of crude. They remain long USDCOP, but have tightened their target to 4250.
  • On the data front, September manufacturing PMI figures are due at 1600BST, before focus turns to the BanRep minutes on Thursday for further clues on the Board’s thinking on the near-term interest rate outlook.