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Colorado Continuing Claims Buck The National Trend With Grind Higher

US DATA
  • Continuing jobless claims have seen a notable increase in recent months in seasonally adjusted terms, seemingly partly down to the seasonal adjustment process but also partly a drifting higher in non-seasonally adjusted claims such that they compare with higher years when focusing on comparable periods.
  • This has tended to be mirrored when looking across states, but Colorado is one standout as claims have steadily pushed higher since the middle of the year.
  • There could be various factors at play, two being either fraudulent claims or a slower rolling out of legitimate claims after a tightening of anti-fraud tools in the spring (see here).
  • If the former (and fraudulent claims surged in 2021 – see here) it could have been biasing continuing claims higher.
  • This is only a marginal impact though, with claims increasing from circa 20k to 30k over that period, compared to continuing claims running at a seasonally adjusted 1875k in latest data, but it's nevertheless worth watching.

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