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EURO-CZECH: Commerzbank expect eur/czk to head towards the Czk25.00 mark over
the coming quarters, according to their latest research report.
- It adds, Czech CPI data for the headline rate in December was in line with
market expectations at 2.4 percent y/y, but undershot CNB's own monthly forecast
of 2.5 percent y/y. CNB estimates that "monetary policy relevant" inflation
(which excludes tax changes) stood at a lower 2.3 percent in December, with
slower core inflation responsible for the downward surprise.
- Indeed, CNB economists summarised yesterday's data by stating that inflation
pressure remains pronounced, which reflects faster wage growth amidst robust
growth in the domestic economy; growth in domestic costs was expected to record
a further increase in the short-term owing to labour market tightness, after
which they are likely to moderate because of the stabilising effect of monetary
policy and koruna appreciation.
"In other words, the assessment is that monpol needs to get tighter before it
will have its desired effect." Commerzbank hold on to their base-case that the
central bank will raise the benchmark rate by 25 bps on Feb1," the report added.