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Commerzbank See CBR Policy Having Few Implications for FX Rates Going Forward

RUSSIA
  • Following Friday’s CBR rate decision, Commerzbank write that they continue to expect that CBR will gradually reduce its main rate towards the 4%-5% range this year.
  • It may cut the rate to even below this level if GDP contraction were to turn out sharper than the 5%-8% which many commentators expect for 2022. They add that inflation is likely to remain well above CBR’s target for most of 2022 (even if clearly declining) – hence, CBR may not be in a hurry to slash rates much faster.
  • In 2023, inflation will probably be much lower (or negative), which may then trigger a new lower range for the benchmark rate. Nonetheless, this view has little or no implication for the exchange rate.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

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