Concern Over Potential Energy Deal As Putin And Erdogan Meet In Sochi

Turkish President Recep Erdogan is set to meet his Russia counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia today. The second meeting between the two, following a trilateral meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran last month.

• The meeting comes at the conclusion of a successful first week of the Turkish brokered grain corridor in the Black Sea, but concerns are mounting within NATO over the nature of the closer relationship between Turkey and Russia.
• The Washington Post has reported that Moscow seeks to deepen economic ties with Istanbul as a means to circumvent sanctions.
• WaPo: A Russian proposal "shared with The Washington Post by Ukrainian intelligence, calls for Erdogan’s government to permit Russia to buy stakes in Turkish oil refineries, oil terminals and reservoirs — a move that economists say could help disguise the origin of its exports after the European Union’s oil embargo kicks in fully next year."
• WaPo: "Russia also is requesting that several state-owned Turkish banks allow correspondent accounts for Russia’s biggest banks, which economists and sanctions experts say would be a flagrant breach of Western sanctions, and that Russian industrial producers be allowed to operate out of free economic zones in Turkey."
• There is also the question of Erdogan's planned military operation in Norther Syria which is opposed by Russia, Iran, and NATO. Erdogan will be seeking the green light for this operation and may consider a 'quid pro quo' for Russia's blessing.
• Another complicating factor is this weeks flare up in Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2020 Erdogan was seen as scoring a victory over Putin in the South Caucasian conflict by sponsoring Azerbaijan's military victory over Russian-backed Armenia.
• There has been some speculation that Russia will request the purchase drones or drone technology from Erdogan but this is unlikely and has been ruled out by the manufacturer of the Turkish Bayraktar drones used by the Ukrainian military.