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Conf. Board Labor Differential In Line With U/E Rate Consensus

  • Conference Board consumer sentiment softened by less than expected in October, to 102.6 (cons 100.5) after an upward revised 104.3 (initial 103.0).
  • Within the survey, the labor differential ticked up to 26.3 but from a downward revised 25.5 (initial 27.3).
  • It doesn’t materially change the latest trend, having averaged 26 in the latest three months for a fall below the 33 averaged through 2019 but still relatively elevated on a historical basis - see chart.
  • The limited change on the latest month suggests little bias for the unemployment rate at Friday’s payrolls report, after the prior large step down to the 26 level came along with a step higher in the u/e rate to 3.8% where it has since stayed (cons shows an unchanged 3.8% for Friday).

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