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Conf Board Labor Differential Slips Further Via Revisions

US DATA
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence index was higher than expected in November at 102.0 (cons 101.0) for an improvement after a downward revised 99.1 (initial 102.6).
  • Within the survey, the labor market differential was near unchanged in November but from a downward revised October leaving it at 23.9.
  • It’s the lowest since Apr’21 and comes with the highest measure of “jobs hard to get” since Mar’21.
  • Recall the step down from the low 30s to 27 in Aug-Sep came with the surprise move higher in the unemployment rate to 3.8% in August, which has since drifted to 3.9% in October.
  • There appears to be a structural break in the relationship with the unemployment rate post-pandemic but for what it’s worth, the level of the labor market differential would historically have been closer to an u/e rate between 4-4.25%.

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