Confidence Depressed As Inflation Worries Households

Westpac’s consumer confidence index fell 1.5% m/m in August after 0.4%, the first consecutive monthly falls since November last year. The RBA on hold since July has not outweighed the impact of cost of living pressures, including the recent rises in petrol and electricity prices, and higher mortgage payments on sentiment, although mortgage holders’ sentiment rose 7.8% and house price expectations increased further.

• This period of depressed confidence is the worst since the early 1990s. While mortgagors were happier, renters sentiment fell 6.1% and home owners -5.8%, as the assessment of finances compared to a year ago fell a further 4.4%.
• In terms of the news, inflation stories had the highest recall at 53% followed by budget/taxation 34%, economic conditions 34% and interest rates 25%. Westpac notes that a material easing in cost of living pressures is needed before consumer confidence will begin to recover. While it has improved, 70-80% reported news on inflation and rates as “unfavourable”.
• After the September RBA decision to keep rates at 4.1%, 48% expected rates to rise over the coming year down significantly from 68% in August, but only 15% expect a rate cut over the year ahead.
• The “time to buy a major household item” component fell 3% and unlike confidence is below the depressed early 1990s levels. Signalling that spending is likely to continue stagnating.
• Unemployment expectations have been steady since mid-year, suggesting that it is harder to get a job but that layoffs haven’t picked up.
• Time to buy a home rose 0.6% but remains depressed while over 65% expect prices to rise over the coming year.

Source: MNI - Market News/Australian Institute of Petroleum/Westpac