July 22, 2022 16:03 GMT
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Emerson College is the latest pollster to release a report showing the generic congressional ballot tightening ahead of November's midterm elections.
- Emerson: "Congressional Democrats have closed a nine-point Republican lead down to a single point, trailing 45% to 44%. Nearly 100 days until the 2022 Midterm Elections, 91% of voters are very (74%) or somewhat (17%) motivated to vote this November.
- Emerson identifies abortion as a defining issue that may swing the needle towards Democrats in key frontline races.
- Although only 1/10 voters say abortion is the most important issue facing the nation, those who do, overwhelming favour Democrats and, according to Emerson, “those who say abortion is the top issue facing the nation are more motivated to vote this November than any other issue group."
- On the 2024 presidential elections, former president Donald Trump still maintains a slight edge over President Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) should he chose to run.
- "In hypothetical 2024 match-ups between President Biden and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% and Sanders 45% to 40%."
Figure 1: Generic congressional ballot (Emerson College)