ConHome: 'Vote Of No Confidence In PM Johnson More Likely Than Not'

The Conservative Home blog, a centre-right outlet that is generally supportive of but not associated with the Conservative Party, has published an article stating that it believes a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now at more than a 50% chance.

• Given its political leanings, the blog often has a good insider's knowledge of internal Conservative Party rumblings and therefore its view - outside the norm of a usually-supportive outlet - should not be dismissed lightly.
• Yesterday marked something of a low-point for the Johnson gov't.
  • Anger erupted at the alleged hosting and then gov't denial of a Christmas party at 10 Downing St. in 2020 that broke lockdown guidance. COP26 press spox Allegra Stratton resigned following the leak of a clip where she makes light of the party.
  • The announcement of stricter COVID-19 rules, including COVID-19 passports for large venues, caused significant anger among a section of backbench Conservative MPs.
  • Snap polling from Redfield and Wilton showed Labour extending its lead to 4%, the biggest lead for the opposition with the outlet since the 2019 GE. Other polls showed over half the public and one-third of Conservative voters think Johnson should resign over the party scandal.
• A move against Johnson before the new year is likely, but with the Liberal Democrats now favourites for the North Shropshire by-election on 16 December a confidence vote in the new year is a notable prospect.

Source: Smarkets