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BoK Growth Forecast Could Be At Risk

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In stark contrast to the Survation opinion poll released earlier this week, the latest SavantaComRes opinion poll has Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party up 1, with the main opposition centre-left Labour Party down 1%.

  • Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 41% (+1), LAB: 34% (-1), LDM: 8% (-1), GRN: 5% (-1), SNP: 4% (=). Via SavantaComRes, Fieldwork 16-18 Jul. Changes from 9-11 Jul.
  • The Survation poll earlier this week showed the Conservatives down 4%, with Labour up 3%.
  • The gov't is coming off of a poor news cycle. Spiraling COVID-19 infections, a risk of food shortages due to lack of truckers and huge numbers of individuals being forced to self-isolate, backbench rebellions brewing over planning reforms, vaccine passports, and mooted National Insurance hikes, a scathing televised interview with former senior advisor to the PM Dominic Cummings, and the difficulties in the EU-UK relationship regarding the Northern Ireland protocol each delivering the gov't difficult headlines over the past week.
  • Given these headlines, and the poor polling for the gov't in the Survation poll, this SavantaComRes poll may prove an outlier in showing the Conservatives holding steady.