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Consolidates Post 6.8000 Break

CNH

USD/CNH found selling interest around 6.8000 late yesterday but couldn't sustain a move sub 6.7700 in NY trading. The pair last tracked around 6.7820/25. The CNH still rose 0.7% for Monday, marking 5 straight sessions of gains and slightly outperforming broader USD index losses. The CNY NEER rose 0.18% for Monday to 126.35 (J.P. Morgan Index).

  • There may be some interest in today's USD/CNY fixing, given yesterday's weaker than expected outcome. The China currency has recovered rapidly in recent weeks, we are up 2% since the start of the year for CNH, and so the authorities may be looking to temper the rate of appreciation.
  • Still, the rough sell-side consensus is the re-opening trade still has further to run (see this link for more details).
  • Elsewhere, the authorities are considering a record quota for special local government bonds this year and widening the budget deficit target to boost the growth outlook.
  • In terms of the data calendar, the aggregate financing figures are still due for Dec, while inflation and trade figures print later in the week.
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