Constitution Revision Debate May Reopen, But It's Unclear If It Will Be Conclusive

Early results of Japan's Upper House election suggest that the four parties that seek to revise the world's oldest unamended constitution may have the numbers to secure parliamentary approval for proposed changes, should they reach consensus on substantive matters.

• The bloc of parties looking to amend the nation's pacifist constitution (LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin, Democratic Party for the People) is on track to cross the threshold of seats allowing the Upper House to give its consent for any changes to the fundamental law, replicating the situation in the Lower House.
• Seat distribution will likely promote the reopening of the constitutional debate, although some hurdles still need to be cleared. Any amendment proposed by parliament needs to be approved in a popular referendum, while the four parties differ in their views on what to change in Japan's fundamental law.
• The debate centres around Article 9 that defines Japan's pacifist stance in international affairs and prohibits it from maintaining "land, sea, or air forces or another war potential." Despite its provisions, Japan has Self-Defence Forces and some parties would like to remove legal ambiguity around their existence.
• The pandemic of COVID-19 has also provoked questions related to dealing with emergency situations. The current legal framework prevented central and regional authorities from announcing lockdown measures.
• Although pro-revision parties would be able to pass amendment proposals if they close ranks, lack of consensus on the substance of desired changes may prevent the constitution revision process from reaching the referendum stage.