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Constitutional Proposal Rejected, Focus Turns To BCCh Decision

CHILE
  • As noted, Voters in Chile rejected the proposed new constitution by a margin of 55.7% to 44.3% in a move that effectively ends the constitutional process that began in Oct 2020 to replace the current constitution that was implemented in the 1980's under authoritarian leader Augusto Pinochet.
  • Markets moves have been fairly muted in the aftermath of the decision with the Chilean peso gradually falling around 0.5% since the open and some moderate upward pressure on the front-end of the Camara swaps curve.
  • Focus now turns to tomorrow’s central bank rate decision and accompanying statement release. The majority of surveyed analysts believe the BCCh will re-accelerate the easing pace in December and cut the overnight rate by 75bps to 8.50% on Tuesday. However, the survey remains split with some expecting another 50bp move. Higher-than-expected inflation data for November could support this thesis. The domestic data docket is quiet for the rest of the week with just PPI data for November crossing on Friday.
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