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Consumer Confidence At 2020 Lows; BoI Sees Q3/Q4 Contraction

ITALY DATA
MNI (London)

ITALY OCT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 90.1 (FCST 93.5); SEP 94.8

ITALY OCT MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE 100.4 (FCST 100.0); SEP 101.2r

ITALY OCT ECONOMIC SENTIMENT 104.5; SEP 105.1r

  • Italian consumer confidence fell close to 5 points to 90.1 in October, surpassing pandemic-onset lows of 2020.
  • Despite weakening manufacturing, a marginal recovery was noted in both manufacturing production and services outlooks, implying cautious initial optimism.
  • Retail sentiment fell in October on the back of waning consumer demand. With inflation likely to have accelerated by another 0.5pp to +9.9% y/y (HICP), consumer spending continues to feel the crunch of declining real disposable incomes.
  • On Monday, Italy's Q3 GDP data is due. Banca d'Italia's October macroeconomic projections see a contraction in Q3 and Q4, downgrading growth by 1pp to +0.3% in 2023.
  • Banca d'Italia upgraded their inflation forecasts to average 8.5% average in 2022, along with a 2pp upgrade to +6.5% in 2023.

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