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Consumer Confidence Edges Up, Weak Nov Retail Data Ahead

MNI (London)


  • UK consumer confidence improved for the third consecutive month in December, edging up by a further two points to -42 (vs exp. -41).
  • The index remains near historical lows and more negative than GFC lows.
  • Declining real wages and weakened disposable income headed into the holiday season is adding to pessimism, notable in 12-month personal finance outlooks stalling.
  • Improvements were recorded across 12-month economic outlooks (+5 points) and major purchase index (+4 points). These both remain approx. 30 points below December 2021 levels.
  • Looking forward, Friday's November retail data is anticipated to be muted, with retail sales anticipated to tick up by +0.3% m/m again. Compared to November '21, retail sales will likely contract again by around 5-6%.

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