Consumer Week in Review
Vol continued in the same high-beta names, only deal of interest in primary was ISS that gave no NIC - investors likely eyeing carry at the top-end of consumer space (ex. Tobacco & retailers). PostNL in the pipeline- an interesting one to watch that may come wide - will have thoughts soon.
In macro Euro area consumer prints (volatile) got the normal no cares from rates; Germany retail sales -1.2% MoM from +2.6% & France consumer spending -0.8% from +0.5%. The EU composite retail sales will print Thursday, consensus looking for -0.2% from +0.8%.
In the US, April real personal spending contracted, echoing control group weakness from 2 weeks ago in retail sales. Earnings for local issuers were mixed; Birkenstock with a strong beat, Capri flagging weak lux retailing conditions, latter more weight for read-through. PVH with Q1 results Tuesday after US close, 29s giving 10bps of protection from issuance heading in. Key pieces from week below, only change in screens was a IDSLN28s screen cheap.
- Capri earningsmake purchase price look expensive. Note call risk/deal closing is still the mover for bonds.
- IDSLN28s screen cheap, hedge with long 26s if needed.
- Beware no good news in sight for VF entry/carry
- American Airlines miss, little read-through