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Continuing Claims Increase Supported By NSA Data

US DATA
  • Initial claims surprised higher at a seasonally adjusted 224k (cons 212k) in the week to Jan 27 after 215k (initial 214k), a second weekly increase off a 189k print marked one of the lowest readings on record.
  • This range from 189-224k is a useful reminder to focus on the four-week average, which increased 5k to 208k but remains historically low (for comparison: 2019av 218k, 2019 single week low 197k).
  • Initial claims increased a non-seasonally adjusted 11k on the week, driven by California (+5.6k) and NY (+4.3k) which appear slightly larger than the historical norm.
  • Continuing claims were also stronger than expected, rising to 1898k (cons 1839k) in the week to Jan 20 after a slightly downward revised 1828k (initial 1833k). Recently, it has only been higher with the 1925k in mid-Nov.
  • Note that the 134k increase in NSA continuing claims looks sharp compared to prior years, indicating perhaps some genuine softening in hiring activity.

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