Contracts Remain Within Tight Ranges; Supply Headlines Tomorrow

Amid a muted day of volumes and headline flow, ECB-dated OIS contracts are broadly unchanged vs this morning.

• There are 104bps of rate cuts through the remainder of 2024, with the first full 25bp cut fully priced by the June meeting (31bps of cuts priced).
• The Euribor strip is broadly unchanged, with contracts sitting -1.0 to +1.0 ticks through the Blues vs Friday's settlement.
• In the EGB space, Bund, OAT and IKA futures are all around 10 ticks lower. The former has traded in a tight 39 tick range today. Cash curves have lightly twist steepened, with periphery spreads mixed after initially beginning the day on a constructive note.
• Tomorrow's calendar is dominated by supply, featuring the 10-year EU bond syndication, Italian exchange auction and conventional auctions from Germany (2.50% Mar-26 Schatz re-open) and Finland.
• The ECB's Q4 negotiated wages series will also be released tomorrow (scheduled for 1000GMT/1100CET), which will provide additional information on wage pressures ahead of the full national accounts data due on March 8 (where total compensation and unit labour cost data will be released).