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COLOMBIA: COP Buoyed By Crude Rally, Finance Minister Remarks

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • The Colombian peso outperformed yesterday, aided by the further rally in crude prices on the back of fresh US sanctions on Russia, as well as remarks from new Finance Minister Diego Guevara, who said that the government is committed to keeping public debt on a sustainable path. Guevara also suggested that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month, suggesting that the debate on Jan 31 could be between another 25bp cut and no change, rather than a consideration of whether to accelerate back to 50bp.
  • USDCOP closed 0.9% lower at 4307. BBVA also notes that COP has been aided by the cautious stance of BanRep, which has built a higher local yield cushion. They say that pricing of BanRep’s terminal rate has risen nearly 80bp from 7.70% to the 8.50% implied by the IBR. They also note that CPI inflation should converge further through H1, which is likely boosting forward expectations for real yields offered in local markets, adding support for the COP.
  • Today, President Petro begins the second and final day of his government’s conclave to determine the strategy for 2025. No macro data are due, with focus this week remaining on tomorrow’s BanRep economist survey, followed by November retail sales and IP on Friday.
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  • The Colombian peso outperformed yesterday, aided by the further rally in crude prices on the back of fresh US sanctions on Russia, as well as remarks from new Finance Minister Diego Guevara, who said that the government is committed to keeping public debt on a sustainable path. Guevara also suggested that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month, suggesting that the debate on Jan 31 could be between another 25bp cut and no change, rather than a consideration of whether to accelerate back to 50bp.
  • USDCOP closed 0.9% lower at 4307. BBVA also notes that COP has been aided by the cautious stance of BanRep, which has built a higher local yield cushion. They say that pricing of BanRep’s terminal rate has risen nearly 80bp from 7.70% to the 8.50% implied by the IBR. They also note that CPI inflation should converge further through H1, which is likely boosting forward expectations for real yields offered in local markets, adding support for the COP.
  • Today, President Petro begins the second and final day of his government’s conclave to determine the strategy for 2025. No macro data are due, with focus this week remaining on tomorrow’s BanRep economist survey, followed by November retail sales and IP on Friday.