MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, May 13

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Reveals 2024 Bond Issuance Plan

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Cuts Scale Of 5-10 Year JGB Buying By JPY50 Bln

RPT-MNI POLICY:BCB Dissenters Feared Reaction Function Misstep

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1030 Mon; -4.18% Y/Y

Key data and MPC speakers this week (3/3)

Key data and MPC speakers this week (2/3)

Key data and MPC speakers this week (1/3)

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Core CPI Outlook: Services Softens, Energy Uptick Underwhelms

GERMAN DATA
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A closer look at this morning's state level flash data suggests that German core CPI clearly decelerated in April (tracking at 3.0% vs 3.3% prior, based on states making up 50% of the national CPI basket weight). In turn that deceleration looks to have been driven by services CPI which seems to have also slowed down sharply (tracking at 3.3% vs 3.7% prior) with Easter effects likely coming into play at least to some extent. We get the national level release at 1300BST/1400CET.

  • Looking at the services-heavy COICOP sub-components (for which states representing around 90% of the national CPI basket have reported data), restaurant and hotels CPI tracks at 6.3% Y/Y (vs 6.4% prior), while transport CPI tracks at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior).
  • Recreation and culture inflation has decelerated slightly, tracking at +1.8% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior), with education broadly unchanged (+4.9% Y/Y vs +4.8% prior).
  • Non-energy industrial goods prices looked soft as well (ie furniture and clothing prices).
  • The magnitude of the impact of April Easter effects remains uncertain for now - initial state-level evidence points towards a negative contribution of airfares in April to the yearly rate (Saxony airfares for example -11.0% Y/Y). Note the low contribution of airfares to the overall headline print, however.
  • Energy prices meanwhile seem to have materialized their expected uptick in April driven by the gas VAT increase to 19%, but perhaps to a lesser extent than projected by analysts going into the release (we track energy at -1.1% Y/Y vs -2.7% in March, based on around 50% of states).
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A closer look at this morning's state level flash data suggests that German core CPI clearly decelerated in April (tracking at 3.0% vs 3.3% prior, based on states making up 50% of the national CPI basket weight). In turn that deceleration looks to have been driven by services CPI which seems to have also slowed down sharply (tracking at 3.3% vs 3.7% prior) with Easter effects likely coming into play at least to some extent. We get the national level release at 1300BST/1400CET.

  • Looking at the services-heavy COICOP sub-components (for which states representing around 90% of the national CPI basket have reported data), restaurant and hotels CPI tracks at 6.3% Y/Y (vs 6.4% prior), while transport CPI tracks at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior).
  • Recreation and culture inflation has decelerated slightly, tracking at +1.8% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior), with education broadly unchanged (+4.9% Y/Y vs +4.8% prior).
  • Non-energy industrial goods prices looked soft as well (ie furniture and clothing prices).
  • The magnitude of the impact of April Easter effects remains uncertain for now - initial state-level evidence points towards a negative contribution of airfares in April to the yearly rate (Saxony airfares for example -11.0% Y/Y). Note the low contribution of airfares to the overall headline print, however.
  • Energy prices meanwhile seem to have materialized their expected uptick in April driven by the gas VAT increase to 19%, but perhaps to a lesser extent than projected by analysts going into the release (we track energy at -1.1% Y/Y vs -2.7% in March, based on around 50% of states).