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Core PCE and Supercore Trends Resume Moderation

  • Core PCE was slightly softer than expected in October at 0.16% M/M (cons 0.2) after an upward revised 0.315% M/M (initial 0.30%).
  • Notably, yesterday’s downward revision to Q3 turned out to be backloaded in the quarter, largest in Jul and then also in Aug.
  • The three-month run rate inched a tenth down to 2.4% annualized, still above the 1.9% from Aug, although the six-month rate at 2.5% slowed to its lowest since Feb'21.
  • PCE core services ex-housing 0.148% M/M after an upward revised 0.447% M/M (initial 0.42).
  • The three-month run rate eased back to 2.8% annualized, below the 2.9% in Aug for its lowest since Dec’20.

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