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Core PCE Trends Stall 0.5-1pp Above Target

US DATA
  • Core PCE ultimately came in as expected at 0.299% M/M (cons 0.3 median, 0.27 av) courtesy of mainly a downward revision to August, meaning it followed an average of 0.168% M/M over the prior three-months instead of 0.178% (we knew there would be a modest net downward revision after yesterday's Q3 advance).
  • It saw the 3-month average accelerate to 2.55% annualized after a rare return to target of 2.0% in August for the first time since Dec’20.
  • The 6-month average meanwhile eased marginally to 2.8% annualized from 2.9%, its lowest since Feb’21 but with the pace of moderation slowing.
  • Combined, the two measures show some slowing in disinflationary progress, a reminder that the process won’t be smooth.
  • More of note will be the stalling in the core services ex-housing component, at 4.0% and 3.5% 3-month and 6-month annualized rates respectively as noted earlier.

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