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Core Price Pressures Ease Further In October


Asian CPI inflation has generally moderated in October but with a number of countries seeing higher headline rates. Underlying price pressures were either little changed or lower though, which should be good news for the region’s central banks. Lower oil prices should put downward pressure on headline in the coming months but processed rice prices are currently 9.4% higher in November to date.

  • October CPI data showed that China fell back into deflation with headline down to -0.2% y/y from zero. Core remained positive but eased 0.2pp to 0.6%. This has driven non-Japan Asian CPI down 0.1pp to 1.6%, helped by Thailand and the Philippines. Whereas there was higher inflation in Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Asian core inflation was down 0.2pp to 1.2%, the lowest since June 2021.
  • Excluding China headline was steady at 3.8%, 1.6pp below the September 2022 peak, assuming the countries that are yet to release data are steady at the September rate. Core eased to 2.7% y/y from 2.8% and down 1.5pp from the January peak.
Asia core CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/IMF

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