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Correct Lower From Early Monday Highs On Higher OPEC Exports

OIL

Oil benchmarks continued to correct higher from early Monday highs post yesterday's Asia close. By NY trade, the front month Brent contract was back close to $82/bbl (earlier Monday highs were at $84.80/bbl). We found some support around this level and closed near $82.50/bbl, a loss of around 1.2%. WTI fell under $76.50/bbl, before closing near $76.80/bbl.

  • Sentiment was weighed by signs that OPEC exports are higher than planned and returning North Dakota production.
  • North Dakota's oil production is disrupted by around 10-40kbpd as of 29 January due to the recent cold spell according to the pipeline authority, while OPEC+ appears to be making a slow start to its new output cuts, according to Kpler.
  • This comes as the market awaits the US response to the weekend attack on the Jordan base (which killed 3 soldiers) and sits near the Syrian border.
  • For Brent, a break back above Monday's high ($84.80/bbl), could see $86.64/bbl (76.4% retrace of Sep 15 – Dec 13 bear cycle) targeted. On the downside the 100-day EMA sits near $81.33/bbl.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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