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Correlation With 2-year Yields, Commodities Strengthen In Recent Trade

NZD

NZD/USD correlations with 2 year yield differentials and commodity prices have strengthened over the past week, standing out as a key macro driver in recent dealings. The table below presents levels of correlations between NZD and key macro drivers (note the yield differential reflects swap rates).

  • The pair has been mostly range bound the last week, although dips are being supported. The continued recovery in commodity prices last week has helped on this front, while yield differentials are up off recent lows. The 2yr swap last around +56bps, we were at +50bps on Thursday last week.
  • Through January the NZD/USD rose ~4% with strength in global equities and commodity prices, as well as an easing in the VIX all supporting the rally.
  • Conversely, the recent weakness in Milk Futures hasn't weighed on the Kiwi, although the monthly correlation does remain relatively strong.
Fig 1: NZD/USD correlation with Global Macro Drivers

Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg

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