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Country-Level Data Points To 2.5-2.6% Y/Y Headline HICP; 3.8% Core

EUROZONE

With 4 of the largest 5 Eurozone economies seeing lower-than-expected headline inflation in the November flash readings (with 75% of the HICP basket overall including Belgium, Austria, Ireland and Portugal), and Italy (17% of the basket) yet to report (1000UK), MNI estimates based on the data received so far that the Eurozone-wide headline reading (1000UK) will come in at 2.5-2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in October).

  • That's a little below where we believe consensus is now (2.6-2.7%), and vs the 2.7% coming into the week.
  • Most national readings point to softer core pressures as well, which poses downside risks to the 3.9% Y/Y consensus forecast (vs 4.2% in October) coming into the November inflation round.
  • A 3.8% Y/Y core reading is probably priced in at this point.
  • The wild card is the impact of the drag from package holiday prices, which by most accounts came in stronger than expected in Germany (due in part to methodological changes), which will restrain downside in the EZ-wide core reading.
  • However the slowdown in French manufactured goods/services prices seen in data this morning helped reinforce the overall theme of a weaker core EZ figure than had previously been expected.
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