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The COVID-19 reproduction or 'R' rate is well above the 1.0 level required to see a slow down in the spread of cases, risking the re-introduction of restrictions on personal liberties as the continent enters winter.

Chart 1. Estimated R Rate Across Select European Nations

Source: @cjsnowdon,

  • The R-rate is dependent on nations' testing capacity and appetites', but the high R-rates in Belgium and Germany could result in the re-imposition of some lockdown restrictions in these nations in an effort to get case numbers down and avoid mass hospitalisations come the height of winter.
  • In Germany, Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats remain in talks with 2 other parties to form a new coalition gov't. Should this gov't come to power in the next month or so, one of its first decisions could be whether to place Germany under a national lockdown/encourage Germany's federal states to do so.
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