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CPI-ATE Forecast Lower Through 2024 and 2025

NORGES BANK

Rounding out the other notable Norges Bank forecast changes:

  • CPI-ATE has been revised lower through 2024 and 2025, in line with the lower-than-expected outcomes vs the December MPR.
  • The unemployment rate has also been revised lower, in line with recent outcomes.
  • The I-44 index, which had traded below the December MPR projections since the surprising December hike, has also been revised lower (i.e. a stronger NOK).
  • The 2024 mainland GDP growth forecast has been revised to 0.5% Y/Y, versus 0.1% prior. This is in line with the large upward contribution that domestic demand had on the revised policy path.

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