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CPI Likely Beyond the Peak in November

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

Following the release of Saxony state data, our calculations imply a -0.49% m/m and +10.04% y/y inflation rate for Germany in November.

  • This constitutes a considerable miss on the Bloomberg consensus of a -0.2% m/m fall and a +10.4% y/y increase.
  • Almost all states reported deflationary month-on-month rates (9 of the available 10) and slowing year-on-year rates (8/10). This implies that October was indeed likely to have been the national peak CPI month.
M/MNov (Reported)Oct (Reported)DifferenceWeighting
North Rhine Westphalia-0.8%1.2%-2.0%21.70%
Hesse0.4%1.1%-0.7%7.70%
Bavaria-0.3%0.7%-1.0%16.80%
Brandenburg-0.5%1.1%-1.6%2.60%
Baden Wuert.-0.2%0.8%-1.0%14.10%
Berlin-0.9%0.7%-1.6%3.90%
Saxony -0.3%1.2%-1.5%4.40%
Rhineland-Palatinate-0.2%0.6%-0.8%5.10%
Lower Saxony-0.6%0.8%-1.4%9.40%
Saxony-Anhalt-0.3%0.8%-1.1%2.40%
Weighted average: -0.49%for 88.1%
Y/YNov (Reported)Oct (Reported)DifferenceWeighting
North Rhine Westphalia10.4%11.0%-0.6%21.70%
Hesse9.7%9.9%-0.2%7.70%
Bavaria10.9%11.0%-0.1%16.80%
Brandenburg10.5%10.8%-0.3%2.60%
Baden Wuert.9.6%9.8%-0.2%14.10%
Berlin9.1%9.9%-0.8%3.90%
Saxony 9.9%10.1%-0.2%4.40%
Rhineland-Palatinate9.8%9.7%0.1%5.10%
Lower Saxony10.0%10.5%-0.5%9.40%
Saxony-Anhalt10.5%10.5%0.0%2.40%
Weighted average: +10.04% y/yfor 88.1%
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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