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CPI, PPI in focus this week as CBRT faces tough decisions ahead

TURKEY
  • Expectations for this week's CPI print have seemingly moderated in the last month as many sell-side institutions were anticipating a rise to 19.5%, but have revised these estimates lower in recent weeks
  • GS says it expects headline inflation to fall from +19.0%yoy to +18.4%yoy (Cons.: +18.8%yoy) and core inflation to fall from +17.2%yoy to +16.1%yoy (Cons.: +17.2%yoy), on the back of the cut to the special consumption tax on automobiles.
  • Notes CPI inflation is likely to have peaked in July, and that inflation will decline further in Q4. Warns, however, of upside risks in the near term, coming mainly from food prices and reopening effects
  • The fall in inflation provides the CBRT with more space to keep rates on hold, as prior expectations for a +19.5% reading placed the CBRT in a critical predicament of needing to honour promises to keep rates above inflation against pressure from Erdogan to cut rates - making for a key breaking point in CBRT policy
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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