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CPI Preview – Tue 19 Sep, 0830ET

CANADA
  • Headline CPI inflation is seen bouncing 0.5pps to 3.8% Y/Y in August on a combination of base effects and another strong gasoline increase.
  • Analyst estimates mostly range from 3.7-4.1% Y/Y with one outlier at 3.4% Y/Y.
  • Focus should be on the BoC’s preferred core measures, with Y/Y figures potentially edging a tenth higher as they lap a softer monthly print from Aug’22. Alternatively, some see CPI ex food & energy either holding at 3.4% or dipping to 3.3% Y/Y for a fresh low since Nov’21.
  • The BoC has been putting most weight on 3-month annualised run rates however, and the dropping out of 0.2% M/M trim & median readings from May could trouble the recent 3.5-4% range seen since August last year. For example, a repeat of last month’s 0.35% M/M readings would push the 3-mth average from 3.5% to 4.1% annualized.
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS currently prices +8.5bps for October before fluctuates between +12.5-15bps of cumulative tightening by year-end as the market looks for signs that could force the BoC back off the sidelines once again. Note that the BoC will still be able to see the Sept CPI release on Oct 17 ahead of its Oct 25 decision.
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