Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

CPI Previews, Feb 21 0830ET

  • The median Bloomberg estimate see headline easing 0.2pts to 6.1% Y/Y although 2 of 13 see it holding steady (CIBC and Capital Economics).
  • The bulk of estimates between 6.0-6.3% Y/Y is relatively tight compared to recent months although there is one standout forecast of 5.5% (S&P Global).
  • Selection of local analysts from across the forecast range:

  • CIBC above consensus: Headline of 6.3% Y/Y from 0.8% M/M, driven by a slight rebound in gasoline prices and a further rapid increase in mortgage interest costs. However, further moderation in imported goods prices should mean that core inflation excluding food, energy and mortgage interest likely rose at a monthly pace broadly consistent with a 2% inflation target. Headline CPI seen falling 3% by June but with the final leg back to 2% dragging into 2024.
  • RBC in line with consensus: See both headline and CPI ex food & energy dipping 0.2pts to 6.1% and 5.1% Y/Y respectively. Mortgage interest costs have continued to accelerate as previous rate hikes pass through but shelter inflation likely slowed with lower home buying costs. CPI-trim/median should tick lower along with a further gradual narrowing in the breadth of inflation pressures.
  • TD below consensus: Headline seen slowing 0.3pts to 6.0% Y/Y. Mortgage interest costs and rents will remain a key driver for shelter, while household furnishings and clothing should weigh on headline. CPI-trim/median seen edging 0.2pp lower to 4.95% Y/Y (vs limited consensus -0.1pps).

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.