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CPI Previews, Feb 21 0830ET

CANADA
  • The median Bloomberg estimate see headline easing 0.2pts to 6.1% Y/Y although 2 of 13 see it holding steady (CIBC and Capital Economics).
  • The bulk of estimates between 6.0-6.3% Y/Y is relatively tight compared to recent months although there is one standout forecast of 5.5% (S&P Global).
  • Selection of local analysts from across the forecast range:

  • CIBC above consensus: Headline of 6.3% Y/Y from 0.8% M/M, driven by a slight rebound in gasoline prices and a further rapid increase in mortgage interest costs. However, further moderation in imported goods prices should mean that core inflation excluding food, energy and mortgage interest likely rose at a monthly pace broadly consistent with a 2% inflation target. Headline CPI seen falling 3% by June but with the final leg back to 2% dragging into 2024.
  • RBC in line with consensus: See both headline and CPI ex food & energy dipping 0.2pts to 6.1% and 5.1% Y/Y respectively. Mortgage interest costs have continued to accelerate as previous rate hikes pass through but shelter inflation likely slowed with lower home buying costs. CPI-trim/median should tick lower along with a further gradual narrowing in the breadth of inflation pressures.
  • TD below consensus: Headline seen slowing 0.3pts to 6.0% Y/Y. Mortgage interest costs and rents will remain a key driver for shelter, while household furnishings and clothing should weigh on headline. CPI-trim/median seen edging 0.2pp lower to 4.95% Y/Y (vs limited consensus -0.1pps).
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