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CPI Surges Above RBI Target Band, Wholesale Prices Due Later

INR

Yesterday's January CPI printed at 6.52%, stronger than the expected 6.00%, rising from 5.72% in December.

  • The CPI gauge is now above the RBIs 2-6% target band for the first time since October. Core inflation remained sticky as well, although didn't accelerate according to a Bloomberg measure (6.43% y/y for Jan, unchanged from Dec).
  • At its last meeting the RBI reiterated its commitment to the withdrawal of accommodation, the CPI print, while not guaranteeing another possible tightening by the bank, tilts risks that way.
  • INR is firmer in early trade, USD/INR is down ~0.2% last printing 82.50/60. This is in line with softer USD trends elsewhere. Onshore bond yields are higher, with the 5-7yr bucket leading moves higher +4.4bp for the 5yr to 7.34% in yield terms.
  • Onshore equities are higher in the first part of trade, +0.30% at this stage. offshore investors returned late last week to the local market (+$209mn in net inflows on the 10th of Feb).
  • Coming up later is wholesale prices for Jan, the Bloomberg survey median estimate is 4.50% and the prior print was 4.95%.
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