MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Credit Agricole Forecast USD/TRY at 32.00 in June

TRY
  • Credit Agricole expect the TRY to continue to depreciate in coming months. But the pace of depreciation should remain controlled and they see stabilisation and possibly some TRY appreciation later on. They forecast: USD/TRY at 32 in June and 30 in December 2024.
  • Inflation will likely peak in Q2 and the current account will continue to improve on the back of tighter monetary conditions but also as tourism-related seasonality supports money inflows between March and August, they say.
  • Credit Agricole add that the risk of dollarisation after the partial removal of the KKM scheme has remained contained, and the CBRT’s and government’s commitment in favour of financial stabilisation is strong. This should favour the comeback of the TRY as a carry trade for the bravest investors, particularly as the Fed begins to lower interest rates.
  • On monetary policy, Credit Agricole say the strong commitment of both the government and the central bank suggests the current stance should remain in place during the bulk of 2024, and possibly into 2025 until inflation becomes clearer at least. They acknowledge the risk of this period being shorter, depending on what President Erdogan decides to do.
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