Credit Implications Of Load-Shedding Crisis Weigh On Rand

Spot USD/ZAR has crept higher today, with major credit rating agencies warning about the impact of persistent load-shedding on South Africa's risk profile. The rate last operates at ZAR18.0740, up ~1,750 pips on the day, struggling to punch through Feb 13 high/76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Jan 12 downleg at ZAR18.0873/18.1363 so far.

• Fitch noted today that a failure to find a medium-term solution to the nation's energy crisis would add pressure on South Africa's credit rating. This came after Moody's said last Friday that unprecedented power outages are credit negative.
• Local-currency bond yields have gone offered today, with bear steepening impetus evident in the yield curve. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate last sits at 6.15%.
• The key risk event going forward is next Wednesday's budget speech from Finance Minister Godongwana, who may shed some light on the plans to take on part of Eskom's debt.
• Source reports have suggested that President Cyril Ramaphosa will hold off on reshuffling his Cabinet until after the budget.