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CREDIT SUPPLY: Credit Agricole SNP Issue: We See FV Around MS+100-105bp Area

CREDIT SUPPLY
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Credit Agricole (ACAFP: A3/A-/A+) is issuing social senior non-preferred today – we see fair value around MS+100-105bp area.

  • CredAg is raising EUR750m (WNG) 6.5NC5.5 social senior non-preferred with IPT at MS+140-145bp. Expected ratings are A3/A-/A+.
  • 1Q24 results were good with upgraded guidance and, whilst the equity has lagged peers due to the French political situation, the cash bonds have broadly tracked. Results aren’t due until 1-Aug.
  • BNP and CredAg both have well populated SNP curves and there’s an adjacent ACAFP social bond (ACAFP 0.5% ’29) at a slightly shorter (1.3yrs) workout. It’s at MS+95bp so, adding around 5-10bp per year term premium takes us towards a fair value around MS+100-105bp.
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Credit Agricole (ACAFP: A3/A-/A+) is issuing social senior non-preferred today – we see fair value around MS+100-105bp area.

  • CredAg is raising EUR750m (WNG) 6.5NC5.5 social senior non-preferred with IPT at MS+140-145bp. Expected ratings are A3/A-/A+.
  • 1Q24 results were good with upgraded guidance and, whilst the equity has lagged peers due to the French political situation, the cash bonds have broadly tracked. Results aren’t due until 1-Aug.
  • BNP and CredAg both have well populated SNP curves and there’s an adjacent ACAFP social bond (ACAFP 0.5% ’29) at a slightly shorter (1.3yrs) workout. It’s at MS+95bp so, adding around 5-10bp per year term premium takes us towards a fair value around MS+100-105bp.