Crude Consolidates In Thin Holiday Trading Ahead Of Monthly Reports

Oil prices have given up some of their gains from late last week with trading thin due to much of Asia closed for holidays. WTI is down 0.6% to $76.41/bbl off the intraday low of $76.18 and Brent is down 0.5% to $81.78/bbl and has been moving in a narrow range. The USD index is slightly lower.

• Oil has sold off today on news that Iran has been talking with Hamas in Beirut to find a “diplomatic solution”. Iran commented that progress is being made on the situation in Gaza including the release of Israeli hostages, according to Bloomberg. Later today US President Biden and King Abdullah of Jordan will speak.
• Geopolitical developments continue to support crude but concerns over excess supply persist given scepticism that OPEC members will stick to quotas and Plains All American Pipeline saying that output from the US Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is expected to rise almost 5% before year-end. Revised forecasts will be included in the OPEC and IEA monthly reports due this week.
• Later the Fed’s Bowman, Barkin and Kashkari make appearances, BoE’s Bailey and the ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Buch speak. In terms of data there are January NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and US budget statement. US CPI on Tuesday will be watched closely.