Crude Continues Rising As Global Backdrop Uncertain, OPEC Committed To Cuts

Oil prices moved higher again on Monday driven by the weaker US dollar, continued conflicts in oil-producing regions and OPEC+’s commitment to supply curbs. The US is threatening to reimpose energy-related sanctions on Venezuela and Houthis have warned Saudi Arabia not to support US attacks on its positions. The USD index fell 0.2%.

• WTI rose strongly and broke above $82 to reach a peak of $82.48/bbl. It is now up 1.7% to $81.95. The benchmark is now up 5.9% on the month. The bull theme remains intact with initial resistance at $83.12, March 19 high, and support at $79.40, 20-day EMA.
• Brent rose above $87 briefly to make a high of $87.17/bbl but is now up 1.5% at $86.68 to be 5.8% higher in March. Initial resistance remains at $87.70 with moving average studies in bull mode. Initial support is at $84.11, 20-day EMA.
• Attention is on Russia with Ukrainian drone attacks continuing and a tragic terrorist attack on Moscow. Rosneft’s Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, southern Russia, was attacked on Saturday and now half its capacity is offline. Sanctions are also having an impact on Russian crude with India refusing to take oil on state-owned tankers.
• There will be an OPEC online meeting on April 3 to review quotas but with members saying there is no need to make changes, cutbacks are likely to continue at their current rate until the end of June.