Crude Daily Gains Plateau

Crude continues to trade higher on the day but has begun moderating its gains during US hours. WTI has come down from its high on the day of $78.51/b.

• WTI DEC 23 up 1.1% at 78.05$/bbl
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.31$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.04$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 unchanged at 0.22$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.24$/bbl at 3.57$/bbl
• The initial rally of the day came when the OPEC MOMR released earlier today raised the 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 100kbpd to 2.5mbpd. The report suggested a positive outlook for demand despite exaggerated negative sentiment. The updated IEA monthly oil report is due out tomorrow.
• The OPEC forecast is in contrast to the more bearish feeling in the market amid a sluggish recovery from China and weaker US demand, which had been keeping pressure on oil prices.
• A secondary rally came after the US Treasury Department appears to be pushing harder on sanctions against Russian oil again. It has sent notices to 30 ship management companies requesting information about around 100 vessels that may be in breach of the $60/bbl price cap sanctions according to a Reuters source who has seen the document.
• A crack-down on price cap breaches could disincentivise some freight companies from moving Russian barrels, which could have a knock-on effect for oil supply, thus adding some bullish moves on the day.