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Free AccessCrude Directionless But Gold Tumbles Further Ahead Of CPI & Fed
- Crude futures have reversed early losses as the market continues to struggle for direction.
- Crude has been experiencing pressure due to the potential for a market surplus next year amid lack of confidence that OPEC+ voluntary cuts can offset the non-OPEC supply growth. The potential slower demand growth from China has also been adding pressure to prices.
- OPEC+ oil output cut of 2.2m b/d in Q1, including 1.3m b/d of rollover cuts, may be too short-lived to tighten supply, traders told Reuters. "A continuation of these cuts into the Q2/Q3 might be required for the (Nov. 30) meeting to be viewed bullishly," Macquarie analysts said.
- Saudi Aramco has notified at least three buyers in North Asia that the firm will supply full contractual volumes of crude oil in January 2024, while buyers have asked for less supply amid high January OSPs to Asia.
- WTI is +0.2% at $71.38, not troubling resistance at $72.37 (Nov 16 low) or support at $68.80 (Dec 7 low).
- Brent is +0.3% at $76.09, compared to resistance at $79.36 (20-day EMA) and support at $73.50 (Jul 6 low).
- Gold is -1.2% at $1981.1, tumbling despite on balance only limited USD strength on the day and with very little recovery for the yellow metal despite a full reversal of the earlier push higher in Treasury yields. The decline comes ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data and Wednesday’s FOMC decision. An earlier low of $1976.05 briefly cleared support at $1978.2 (50-day EMA) to open a key support at $1931.7 (Nov 13 low).
WTI 1st future (white), Gold spot (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
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