Crude Edges Higher After Two Day Decline on Recession Fears

Crude recovers some ground after two days of decline with Brent front month down as much as 7.5$/bbl with recession fears and weaker oil demand growth weighing on the market. Uncertainty over the recovery in China and strong Russian output have added to the bearish sentiment. The OPEC voluntary production cuts which started this month, Iraqi Kurdistan output disruption and declining US crude inventories have not been enough to halt the trend lower.

• Brent JUL 23 up 0.7% at 72.83$/bbl
• WTI JUN 23 up 0.4% at 68.88$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 up 1% at 643$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.13$/bbl at -3.98$/bbl
• Iraq expects to reach an agreement with the KRG to restart oil export flows from the Kurdistan Region within two weeks according to Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani yesterday.
• Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their year-end outlook for Brent crude to $75/bbl from $87.50/bbl, saying forecasts for declines in Russian supply are too high while the demand boost from China's re-opening after lifting COVID restrictions has largely played out.
  • Brent JUL 23-AUG 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.17$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.15$/bbl at 2.13$/bbl
• Crude time spreads have followed the bearish move lower with the prompt WTI trading back down to parity. The Brent Dec23-Dec24 fell towards the lows seen in mid March amid the banking turmoil before edging back up this morning.
• Gasoline cracks fell yesterday after the EIA weekly data showed a decline in implied demand to reverse the demand gains seen the previous week. Diesel is holding relatively steady as the market closely watches global refinery runs for any cuts after margins have consistently fallen so far this year.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 28.68$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 24.85$/bbl