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OIL: Crude Extends Losses Towards Lows from Last Week

OIL
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Crude extends losses with Brent towards the low of $74.1/bbl from Feb. 6 under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war. Another US crude inventory build and possibility of less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation added bearish pressure. 

  • Concern that trade protectionism could limit global growth is also weighed against upside risk from rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • The OPEC MOMR keep global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.45mb/d while the EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly oil report is out later today.
  • US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five year seasonal average.
  • US product cracks reversed earlier gains yesterday amidst an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand and after seeing diesel rising to a high of over $33/bbl.
    • Brent APR 25 down 1% at 74.4$/bbl
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.1% at 70.59$/bbl
    • Brent APR 25-MAY 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.3$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.18$/bbl at 2.23$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 16.05$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 31.29$/bbl
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Crude extends losses with Brent towards the low of $74.1/bbl from Feb. 6 under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war. Another US crude inventory build and possibility of less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation added bearish pressure. 

  • Concern that trade protectionism could limit global growth is also weighed against upside risk from rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • The OPEC MOMR keep global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.45mb/d while the EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly oil report is out later today.
  • US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five year seasonal average.
  • US product cracks reversed earlier gains yesterday amidst an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand and after seeing diesel rising to a high of over $33/bbl.
    • Brent APR 25 down 1% at 74.4$/bbl
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.1% at 70.59$/bbl
    • Brent APR 25-MAY 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.3$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.18$/bbl at 2.23$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 16.05$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 31.29$/bbl