Crude Falls On Technical Selling, Fed Helps It Find Floor

After oil prices rose to their highest since October, they sold off on Wednesday driven by technicals. They had moved into overbought territory which prompted automatic selling. US EIA data signalling solid fuel demand in the US was unable to turn prices up again. The US dollar fell sharply when a May/June Fed rate cut was not categorically ruled out (USD index -0.4%) and provided some support to crude.

• WTI fell to a low of $80.83/bbl before the Fed announcement and it then rose to $81.44 to be down 1.6% on the day but still up 5.4% in March. It has started today higher at $81.64. Initial support remains unbroken at $78.85, 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at $84.47.
• Brent reached a low of $85.59 and then recovered to $86.15 to be down 1.4%. The benchmark is still 5.2% higher this month. Initial support is at $83.55 with key resistance at $89.26.
• EIA reported a US crude stock drawdown of 1.95mn barrels last week, more than expected. Gasoline inventories fell 3.31mn barrels while distillate rose 624k. Refinery run rates increased 1pp to 87.8% after rising almost 2pp the previous week but gasoline output was still down 0.26mbd. Gasoline demand fell moderately but distillate rose indicating that fuel demand is robust ahead of the US driving season.