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Crude Higher Last Week On More Supportive Fundamentals

OIL
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Oil prices continued rising on Friday and benchmarks recorded weekly gains. They were supported by weaker-than-expected US CPI and also a US crude stock drawdown. There was news of support for China’s housing market and rising inventories signal increased crude demand there. The USD index was down slightly.

  • WTI rose 1.0% to $80.00/bbl but has started today lower at $79.86. It made a high of $80.14 before easing back. It rose 2.2% on the week but is still down 2.4% in May to date. The theme remains bearish and recent gains are just a pause in the trend. Initial resistance is at $80.27, 50-day EMA, while support is at $81.05, May 15 low.
  • Brent rose 0.9% to $84 on Friday after a high of $84.04. It rose 1.5% last week but is down 2.7% this month. Even though the benchmark is consolidating it remains vulnerable. Initial resistance is at $84.54, 50-day EMA, while support is at $81.05, May 15 low. The bull trigger is at $91.18, April 12 high.
  • Supply disruptions remain a focus with Ukrainian drones striking southern Russia’s Slavyansk refinery again causing operations to cease. It had already been closed for several months from a previous attack. It processes 80kbd.
  • Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea remain a threat. Rebels struck an oil tanker heading to China from Russia on Saturday off the coast of Yemen. The vessel was able to continue its journey.
  • Talks to resume crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan concluded with no agreement. They have stalled for over a year due to a price dispute.
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Oil prices continued rising on Friday and benchmarks recorded weekly gains. They were supported by weaker-than-expected US CPI and also a US crude stock drawdown. There was news of support for China’s housing market and rising inventories signal increased crude demand there. The USD index was down slightly.

  • WTI rose 1.0% to $80.00/bbl but has started today lower at $79.86. It made a high of $80.14 before easing back. It rose 2.2% on the week but is still down 2.4% in May to date. The theme remains bearish and recent gains are just a pause in the trend. Initial resistance is at $80.27, 50-day EMA, while support is at $81.05, May 15 low.
  • Brent rose 0.9% to $84 on Friday after a high of $84.04. It rose 1.5% last week but is down 2.7% this month. Even though the benchmark is consolidating it remains vulnerable. Initial resistance is at $84.54, 50-day EMA, while support is at $81.05, May 15 low. The bull trigger is at $91.18, April 12 high.
  • Supply disruptions remain a focus with Ukrainian drones striking southern Russia’s Slavyansk refinery again causing operations to cease. It had already been closed for several months from a previous attack. It processes 80kbd.
  • Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea remain a threat. Rebels struck an oil tanker heading to China from Russia on Saturday off the coast of Yemen. The vessel was able to continue its journey.
  • Talks to resume crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan concluded with no agreement. They have stalled for over a year due to a price dispute.