MNI BRIEF: EU Working On New Trade Retaliation Steps Vs US

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Environmental Equipment Industry

MNI BRIEF: China SME Index Highest Since June 2021

MNI China Press Digest March 12: FDI, Cars, Retail Sales

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY177.8 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1696 Weds; -0.47% Y/Y

MNI: JAPAN FEB CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +4.0% Y/Y; JAN +4.2%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 14.87B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

OIL: Crude Market Faces 220k b/d Surplus in 2025: Kpler

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Kpler’s base case for the crude market in 2025 is a supply surplus of 220k b/d, Kpler’s Muyu Xu said at its Energy Forum Feb. 24

  • Kpler assumes OPEC barrels don’t return, with rising non-OPEC supply from the Americas and Africa alone satiating demand increases.
  • Kpler forecasts US shale output peaking in 2026 at 13.6m b/d with Trump’s call for ‘drill baby drill’ unlikely to move the needle.
  • Improved efficiencies have buoyed US output despite falling rig counts, but this is unsustainable, Xu said.
  • Non-OPEC supply can replace OPEC barrels by volume, but are lighter and sweeter, creating a mismatch between stronger heavy crude demand versus stronger light crude supply. This will weigh on light-heavy spreads.
  • This means that while Brent’s flat price is seen largely rangebound in 2025, spreads between regions will be more volatile
  • 2025 crude demand is driven by increases in Asia and Africa, but faces downside risk from potential US tariffs hitting economic growth
152 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Kpler’s base case for the crude market in 2025 is a supply surplus of 220k b/d, Kpler’s Muyu Xu said at its Energy Forum Feb. 24

  • Kpler assumes OPEC barrels don’t return, with rising non-OPEC supply from the Americas and Africa alone satiating demand increases.
  • Kpler forecasts US shale output peaking in 2026 at 13.6m b/d with Trump’s call for ‘drill baby drill’ unlikely to move the needle.
  • Improved efficiencies have buoyed US output despite falling rig counts, but this is unsustainable, Xu said.
  • Non-OPEC supply can replace OPEC barrels by volume, but are lighter and sweeter, creating a mismatch between stronger heavy crude demand versus stronger light crude supply. This will weigh on light-heavy spreads.
  • This means that while Brent’s flat price is seen largely rangebound in 2025, spreads between regions will be more volatile
  • 2025 crude demand is driven by increases in Asia and Africa, but faces downside risk from potential US tariffs hitting economic growth