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OIL: Crude Steady On Light Holiday Trading

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Oil prices are little changed during APAC today with volumes remaining light. WTI is around $70.64/bbl following a high of $70.75 and Brent is $73.83/bbl (March contract) after reaching $73.92. Surplus concerns continue to offset geopolitical developments resulting in range trading. The USD index is slightly lower. 

  • The possibility that conflict in the Middle East will impact oil supplies continues to worry markets. Israel now appears to be focussing on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
  • The strength of China’s oil demand has worried markets and while there is some optimism that increased stimulus in 2025 may boost it, the lack of details limited the upside to oil. US exports of crude to China fell 46% in 2024, according to Kpler, due to weak demand but also China shifting to other sources such as Iran and Russia.
  • Increased US supply was a factor that contributed to OPEC’s decision to delay its output normalisation but the outlook has become clouded with the election of Trump to the US presidency. He is likely to boost US production further while tightening sanctions on Iran.
  • US December MNI Chicago & Dallas Fed PMIs and November pending home sales print as well preliminary December Spanish CPI.  
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Oil prices are little changed during APAC today with volumes remaining light. WTI is around $70.64/bbl following a high of $70.75 and Brent is $73.83/bbl (March contract) after reaching $73.92. Surplus concerns continue to offset geopolitical developments resulting in range trading. The USD index is slightly lower. 

  • The possibility that conflict in the Middle East will impact oil supplies continues to worry markets. Israel now appears to be focussing on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
  • The strength of China’s oil demand has worried markets and while there is some optimism that increased stimulus in 2025 may boost it, the lack of details limited the upside to oil. US exports of crude to China fell 46% in 2024, according to Kpler, due to weak demand but also China shifting to other sources such as Iran and Russia.
  • Increased US supply was a factor that contributed to OPEC’s decision to delay its output normalisation but the outlook has become clouded with the election of Trump to the US presidency. He is likely to boost US production further while tightening sanctions on Iran.
  • US December MNI Chicago & Dallas Fed PMIs and November pending home sales print as well preliminary December Spanish CPI.