Crude Steady With Support from Soft US Dollar and API Crude Draw

Crude futures are once again holding within the range of 74.79$/bbl to 80.75$/bbl seen so far this year after brief rallies towards the highs this week. A rebound in output from Libya has helped to offset gains seen due to rising Middle East tensions and the slow recovery in US output following severe cold disruption last week. A slightly weaker US dollar and API crude stocks draw are adding some support to prices ahead of the EIA weekly inventories later today.

• Brent MAR 24 up 0.2% at 79.73$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 up 0.2% at 74.55$/bbl
• Gasoil FEB 24 down -0.9% at 806.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -5.18$/bbl
• North Dakota oil production disruption remained unchanged Tuesday with 250-300kbpd impacted due to cold weather according to the pipeline authority – the same as Monday estimates.
• Libyan crude and condensate exports are expected to decline to 860kbpd in January, revised down by 190kbpd, due to the shutdown of the Sharara oil field earlier this month, Kpler said. Output has rebounded to 1.2mbpd after the field restart according to the country’s oil minister.
  • Brent MAR 24-APR 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.43$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 1.99$/bbl
• Near term supply concerns are supporting the curve backwardation with prompt time spreads just below the highs seen over the last week while the Dec24 spreads have dipped down slightly from the highest since late Dec seen on Jan 22.
• Gasoline crack spreads have pulled back from the highest since September earlier this week with US refinery outages set against weak demand estimates and a large build in the API gasoline inventories yesterday.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 19$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 37.22$/bbl