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Crude Volatility Falls to Lowest Since Nov 2021

OIL OPTIONS

The crude ATM implied volatility continues to trend lower with crude holding within a wide range between about 78$/bbl and 88$/bbl so far this year with no clear direction. Crude is edging higher this week with optimism for a recovery in China oil demand offsetting global economic growth uncertainty.

  • The Brent second month implied volatility is at the lowest since Nov 2021 at 33.6% with WTI at 34.8%. Implied vols have gradually fallen from around 45% at the start of the year.
  • The Dec23 25 delta call-put skew continues to narrow with Brent in to -3.45% and WTI to 4.3% today with upside risks from China demand and Russian oil supplies.
  • The Brent second month 25 delta call-put skew is also closing this week in to -2.2% and the second month WTI skew is up to -2.6%.
    • Brent MAY 23 up 0.7% at 84.91$/bbl
    • WTI APR 23 up 0.8% at 78.31$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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